The resurgence of the epidemic in India may have an even more powerful negative impact on the economy, which will also ripple through the global industry chain. Or it will greatly affect some industries that have a high share in India, for example, in the pharmaceutical industry - API.
API refers to one of the substances or a mixture of substances used in the manufacture of drugs, is an active ingredient in pharmaceutical preparations, patients usually can not be taken directly, mainly by chemical synthesis, plant extracts or biotechnology prepared.
Due to the strong strength of generic drugs, India has the title of "world pharmaceutical factory". According to Oriental Securities research report, in addition to the United States, India and China are the world's two largest markets for the supply of APIs, the two together account for about 21% of the global industry chain, if you consider the non-regulated market, the market share of the two is expected to be higher, which shows that China and India, the status of the global API industry chain is very critical.
Pharmaceuticals are just in demand, and if the Indian epidemic leads to a tight supply of APIs in India, it may lead to a reshaping of the global API supply pattern. At the beginning of the outbreak in India last year, CITIC Securities pointed out that a further worsening of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in India would exacerbate the global drug supply shortage, and the high unit prices of some API varieties may continue. The global API supply is heavily dependent on China and India, and a continued epidemic of Newcastle pneumonia in India could disrupt the global drug supply chain and exacerbate supply shortages. Therefore, some API varieties are expected to maintain relatively high prices under the imbalance between supply and demand, bringing potential full-year performance flexibility to relevant Chinese domestic API companies.
In the long term, the global aging trend is obvious, especially in Europe, America and Japan and other developed countries, which makes the demand for drugs greatly increased, the continued expansion of the drug market scale directly drive the global API market scale rose year by year.
In the short term, in recent years, a large number of global heavy original drug patents have expired, the related generic drugs have been listed, which also further boost the growth of related APIs.